Connor McDavid’s Blistering Finish Fuels Edmonton Atop the Pacific

Outshot and hemmed inside their own blue line for long stretches by a surging New York Rangers forecheck on Monday night, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl needed only a handful of clean touches at Rogers Place to flip the script into a clinical 3-1 victory. Draisaitl buried two goals, McDavid snapped home another to extend his point streak, and Edmonton walked off having swept its season series with New York.

Nineteen games into Mike Babcock’s demanding bench tenure, the 13-3-3 Edmonton Oilers sit perched alone atop the Pacific Division with 29 points and a +25 goal differential that ranks third across the entire NHL. Pouring in 4.05 goals per contest while holding opponents to a stingy 2.84 average, Edmonton enters Wednesday night’s home matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers carrying championship expectations and three points of division breathing room.

Mike Babcock’s Heavy Structure Meets Generational Star Power

Pairing Mike Babcock’s demanding defensive-zone habits with hockey’s deadliest offensive duo was designed to eliminate the autumn slow starts that plagued Edmonton in prior seasons. Through 19 outings, the results in the standings could hardly be cleaner: at 13-3-3 (29 points), Edmonton holds three points of separation over second-place Vegas (12-5-2, 26 points) and an eight-point lead over third-place Anaheim. Babcock has leaned unashamedly into loading McDavid and Draisaitl together on the first line alongside forechecking winger Vasily Podkolzin, trusting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins between Kasperi Kapanen and Zach Hyman to sustain second-line cycle pressure.

Around that core, management reshaped both the crease and physical bottom-six layers. Bringing in young starter Devon Levi and veteran backup Tristan Jarry—with summer $1 million signing Frederik Andersen still rehabbing a knee injury on injured reserve—stabilized goaltending procurement, while Jason Dickinson, Trent Frederic, and Connor Murphy added heavy board detail. Oddsmakers reward that complete profile by installing Edmonton at +875 on 2027 Stanley Cup futures boards, the shortest price in the Pacific Division.

League-Best 15.8 Percent Finishing and Lethal Special-Teams Leverage

No roster in hockey punishes microscopic defensive breakdowns like Edmonton. Scoring 77 total goals (4.05 per game, second in the NHL), the Oilers lead the entire league with a 15.8 percent team shooting percentage. McDavid is operating on another stratosphere entirely with 37 assists and 48 points through 19 games—highlighted by a three-assist clinic in Saturday’s 4-2 triumph over Vancouver—while Draisaitl paces the club with 18 goals after back-to-back two-goal nights against the Canucks and Rangers. On the back end, Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard remain an elite top pairing capable of tilting ice in two passes.

Special teams amplify every ounce of that finishing talent. Edmonton’s power play converts at 32.4 percent (third in the NHL, 22 goals on 68 opportunities), while a 77.0 percent penalty kill (tied for 15th) has already struck for four shorthanded goals—tied for first across the league—producing an elite 109.4 percent Special Teams Net Index (combined power-play and penalty-kill efficiency). Backstopped by Jarry’s .902 save percentage and Levi’s athletic crease recovery, Edmonton ranks eighth in goals-against average (2.84) and 11th in team save percentage (.896) while dishing out 460 hits (sixth in the NHL).

Modest Shot Share and Five Players Shelved on Injured Reserve

Peer underneath the 13-3-3 sheen, however, and Monday’s territorial struggle against New York was not an isolated blip. At even strength, Edmonton controls 49.1 percent of five-on-five shot share—the share of even-strength shots on goal—generating just 25.6 shots per night against 26.5 allowed (-17 shot differential, 17th in the NHL). Puck security and dot control also leave room for polish: the Oilers sit 17th in faceoff win rate (49.8 percent), tied for 23rd in takeaways (68), and 20th in giveaways (298), alongside 204 penalty minutes (26th).

Injured-reserve congestion has simultaneously thinned Edmonton’s middle-six speed and defensive depth. Skilled 22-year-old forward Matt Savoie—who played all 82 games for 18 goals and 37 points as a rookie last season—was shifted to long-term injured reserve (lower body, eligible November 24) to create salary-cap relief alongside defenseman Alec Regula (LTIR following offseason surgery, eligible November 21). With wingers Isaac Howard (knee, eligible November 17) and Mattias Janmark (undisclosed procedure, eligible November 28) plus goaltender Andersen (eligible December 30) also on injured reserve, Babcock has relied on Colton Dach, Alex Formenton, Owen Michaels, Mathieu Joseph, and third-pair blueliners Shakir Mukhamadullin and Ty Emberson to hold the fort.

Decoding Edmonton’s Sky-High 105.4 Five-on-Five PDO Heater

From a quantitative handicapping lens, the single loudest number on Edmonton’s ledger is a towering 105.4 five-on-five PDO—the sum of even-strength shooting percentage and save percentage that historically regresses toward 100.0. Even accounting for McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman routinely beating expected-goal models with royal-road passing into open nets, converting 15.8 percent of all shots while getting outshot at five-on-five represents a scorching early-season heater. Games like Monday’s 3-1 win over New York prove Edmonton can win without dominating shot volume, yet relying on finishing variance alone can invite turbulence against stingy playoff defenses.

Still, unlike hollow PDO mirages built on unsustainable bottom-six luck, Edmonton possesses clear structural levers to boost its five-on-five shot share over the coming month. Reintegrating Savoie’s transition pace and Howard’s scoring touch off injured reserve in late November will restore scoring punch behind the top six, while second-pair blueliners Ryan Shea and Connor Murphy continue settling into Babcock’s neutral-zone gap timing. Once Andersen is cleared to compete with Levi and Jarry around late December, Edmonton will also boast three-deep NHL crease insulation.

Pacing the Pacific Gauntlet Toward Spring 2027 Contention

Hosting the struggling 5-10-5 Philadelphia Flyers at Rogers Place on Wednesday night gives Edmonton an immediate opportunity to pad its division lead before tougher Western tests arrive. Oddsmakers hold the board steady with the Oilers installed as -200 moneyline favorites (+125 laying -1.5 on the puck line) against the Flyers (+170 moneyline, +1.5 at -145), paired with a juiced 6.5-goal total against Philadelphia leaning heavily to the over at -130. Banking regulation points at home keeps constant pressure on second-place Vegas three points back.

Looking ahead from mid-November toward the spring 2027 postseason, Edmonton’s mission is less about chasing regular-season fireworks and more about driving that 49.1 percent five-on-five shot share comfortably north of 52 percent without overtaxing McDavid and Draisaitl’s minutes. If Babcock’s physical bottom six and three-man goalie rotation keep goals against below 2.85 per night through winter, the Pacific crown runs straight through Rogers Place.