Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac’s Paint Punch Keeps Shorthanded Indiana Fighting

Trading haymakers inside Dallas' arena on Monday night without their franchise point guard, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, and Andrew Nembhard carved through the interior for 48 minutes before Cooper Flagg's 43-point explosion and Kyrie Irving's 35 late-game heroics nudged the Mavericks past the Indiana Pacers, 125-122. Two nights earlier at altitude in Mexico City against Nikola Jokic and Denver, Indiana hung tough early before running out of half-court creation in a 114-102 defeat.

Returning home to Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 3-8 and third in the Central Division ahead of Wednesday night's matchup against Anthony Davis and the Washington Wizards, Rick Carlisle's squad has weathered a brutal early travel and injury gauntlet. Underneath that sluggish win-loss column, however, Indiana has quietly engineered a rugged interior identity—leading the Central Division and ranking seventh across the NBA in paint points while awaiting All-Star engine Tyrese Haliburton's return from a left hamstring strain.

Surviving Road Marathons and Crunch-Time Heartbreak Without Haliburton

Losing Haliburton five games into October after a 110-102 defeat to Milwaukee forced Carlisle to recalibrate Indiana's trademark transition symphony on the fly. Rather than chasing 130-point track meets shorthanded, the Pacers have leaned into physical two-man actions at a measured 98.5 pace factor (18th in the NBA), grinding out wins like last Wednesday's 107-103 triumph over Memphis where Nembhard scored 22 points and Aaron Nesmith drilled a dagger three-pointer in the closing seconds.

Still, closing tight fourth quarters on the road against elite Western shotmakers has exposed how dearly Indiana misses Haliburton's late-game gravity and floor organization. Dropping consecutive road tests to Denver in Mexico City and Dallas on Monday pushed Indiana five games below .500 in the Eastern Conference standings, turning Wednesday's home stand opener at Gainbridge Fieldhouse against 4-7 Washington into a pivotal November stabilizer before the schedule stiffens again.

Ivica Zubac's Interior Anchor Reshapes Geometry Beside Pascal Siakam

Acquiring bruising seven-footer Ivica Zubac to anchor the five spot represents the most dramatic stylistic shift of Carlisle's second tenure in Indianapolis. Paired with Siakam's relentless midrange spins and post footwork, Zubac gives Indiana bone-rattling ball screens, deep seal touches on the block, and reliable drop rim protection alongside two-way perimeter hounds Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith.

Off the bench, Carlisle deploys an athletic, multi-faceted rotation featuring slasher Kelly Oubre Jr., high-flying forward Obi Toppin, developing lottery talent Jarace Walker, stretch backup center Jay Huff, and veteran connector Larry Nance Jr., with reserves Kobe Brown and Jalen Slawson providing extra wing insurance. Whenever Zubac rests, Huff and Toppin flip Indiana's half-court geometry back to five-out perimeter spacing and transition lob verticality, forcing opposing coaching staffs to prepare for both bruising post seals and wide-open runway sprints across 48 minutes.

Top-Three Two-Point Finishing and 57.5 Percent True Shooting Versus a 117.0 DRTG

Look strictly at Indiana's interior shot-quality ledger and a 3-8 record feels far better than advertised. Posting a solid 113.1 offensive rating (ORTG, 17th in the NBA) and 111.4 points per game even without Haliburton, the Pacers lead the Central Division and rank seventh in the NBA with 542 points in the paint alongside 305 total assists (third in the entire NBA), fueling a scorching 57.1 percent two-point field-goal clip (third in the league). Add 33.5 percent shooting from deep on a balanced 43.7 percent three-point attempt rate, and Indiana ranks 14th in the NBA in both effective field-goal percentage (54.1 percent) and true shooting percentage (57.5 percent).

Where games have slipped away is second-chance rebounding and defensive containment. Without Haliburton's historic ball security, Indiana's turnover rate sits at 13.4 percent (15th in the NBA, 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio), while Zubac's deep paint seals haven't translated into team-wide second chances (an NBA-low 21.1 percent offensive rebound rate, 30th in the league, and 48.3 percent total rebound rate, 27th). Most pressingly, allowing 117.0 points per 100 possessions (DRTG, 22nd) and 115.2 opponent points per game—highlighted by Dallas hanging 125 on Monday—leaves zero cushion in one-possession finishes.

Backcourt Triage Across Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, and Young Wing Rehab

Carlisle has been transparent that Haliburton's left hamstring recovery carries an uncertain day-to-day window (currently listed out with an estimated return around November 13), prioritizing full soft-tissue strength over rushing him back prematurely in November. Compounding that backcourt crunch, sparkplug backup point guard T.J. McConnell remains questionable with his own hamstring issue after making his season debut in Mexico City, while young wings Johnny Furphy (ACL knee recovery) and Ben Sheppard (knee repair) remain sidelined with estimated return targets around January 2, 2027.

In Haliburton's stead, Nembhard has admirably shouldered primary point guard orchestration while guard Quenton Jackson and two-way floor general Braden Smith have logged vital developmental backcourt minutes alongside Oubre Jr. If McConnell's hamstring clears shootaround checks Wednesday evening against Washington, regaining his relentless full-court pest energy and paint probes would immediately calm Indiana's second-unit turnover spikes.

Why Haliburton's Pending Return Keeps Indiana's 2027 Playoff Runway Open

Digging out of a 3-8 hole in a competitive Central Division led by 7-3 Detroit requires urgency, yet Indiana's underlying foundation is far sturdier than a typical lottery team's. Generating 57.1 percent two-point accuracy and 57.5 percent true shooting while your All-NBA point guard watches in street clothes proves that the Siakam-Zubac interior partnership works.

Injecting Haliburton's 10-assist-per-night pace, pull-up three-point gravity, and elite ball security back into this lineup later in November will immediately trim that 13.4 percent turnover rate and supercharge transition efficiency. Just as importantly, sliding Nembhard back into his natural secondary attack role beside Haliburton allows Nembhard and Nesmith to expend maximum energy hounding opposing point guards over screens rather than carrying 36 minutes of offensive initiation. Provided Nesmith, Nembhard, Walker, and Zubac tighten perimeter-to-rim communication to pull a 117.0 DRTG toward the middle of the pack—before Furphy and Sheppard rejoin the wing depth chart in early 2027—Carlisle's group retains clear upward mobility toward the 2027 postseason.